PREMIUM MODELS

Advanced modeling tools for serious sports bettors

Combine market odds with your model using Bayesian inference for posterior probabilities

Compare two lines using CDF analysis to find which has less embedded vig

Monte Carlo simulation for player props with sport-specific distributions and fair odds

Model match outcomes with Poisson distributions — scoreline probabilities, moneyline, spreads, and totals

Model match outcomes with overdispersed scoring — better for blowout-prone matchups in baseball, hockey, and soccer

Regress small-sample player stats toward true talent using Bayesian shrinkage

Generate fair odds for every alternate spread and total line from a single market price

Calculate the probability and expected value of landing in the middle of two positions

Calculate cover probabilities, fair odds, and expected value for teasers — compare your teaser to the book